Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes by Thomas Dalsgaard, Jorgen Elmeskov, Cyn-Young Park

By Thomas Dalsgaard, Jorgen Elmeskov, Cyn-Young Park

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Results are fairly robust across detrending procedures, except for government consumption and money supply. Analyse detrended data in United States time and frequency domains using different methods. Univariate filter: BeveridgeNelson, HP-filter, first order differencing, unobserved component, Band Pass/frequency domain. Multivariate methods: cointegration, common linear, multivariate frequency domain. ii) Quarterly data iii) 1955q3-1986q3 EU12 countries – i) HP filter (results checked and confirmed using two alternatives: quadratic detrending of logs as well as first order differencing).

While the former effect may be permanent, insofar as the policies that increased fiscal stabilisers remain in place, the future of the latter effect remains more uncertain. 32 Taxes in per cent of GDP have increased by almost 12 percentage points for the average OECD country since 1965 (from around 25 per cent to 37–38 per cent). Government transfers have on average doubled over the same period (from around 8 per cent of GDP in the mid-1960s to around 16 per cent today). However, there is not necessarily a simple, linear relationship between the size of taxes and government transfers and the size of fiscal stabilisation.

Second, the increased role for asset prices in driving domestic economies makes it important to avoid misalignments of these prices which subsequently may be painful to unwind. This points to the role that prudential regulation and supervision has to play, in particular since private savings imbalances can now accumulate on a larger scale than was possible before. Third, the factors working to change the shape of the business cycle and to strengthen international spillovers are also likely to influence the monetary transmission mechanism.

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