Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities by Keith Crane

By Keith Crane

Iran is among the most vital U.S. overseas coverage matters yet is very tough to have interaction. The authors investigate present political, ethnic, demographic, and financial developments and vulnerabilities in Iran, then supply tips about U.S. regulations that will foster the traits invaluable to U.S. pursuits. even though, if those traits do take root in Iran, seeing them come to fruition will take time and, consequently, persistence.

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156. 72 Bellaigue, 2005. 32 Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities Conversely, the conservatives had been able to point out the reformers’ failure to move the country forward. Under Ahmadinejad, the conservatives are solely responsible for the successes or failures of their policies. An ineffective presidency could increase disaffection with the conservative faction and with the system as a whole. Politics and Legitimacy in Iran While the electoral turnout was fairly strong, the heavily vetted candidate pool in both Majlis and presidential elections undermined the legitimacy of the vote.

69 Some analysts agree that Ahmadinejad might not have reached 67 “Expediency Council and Interests of the System,” Asr-e-Ma, No. 157, April 12, 2000. 68 “IRNA Conducts Poll on Iran Presidential Elections,” Payvand, March 11, 2004. 69 Gheissari and Nasr, 2006, p. 154. 70 Ahmadinejad’s victory can be attributed to a variety of factors. Ahmadinejad drew on characteristics that appealed to voters. 71 He is not a mullah; public frustration with rule by mullahs made this a very positive characteristic.

However, their criticisms of Khameini’s rule differ. 53 Many Qom-based clerics believe that Khamenei is religiously unqualified to hold the position of velayat-e-faqih. These clerics believe that the system of velayat-e-faqih is legitimate but argue that Khame49 Takeyh, 2006, p. 97. 50 Moslem, 2002, p. 97. 51 Buchta, 2000, p. 80. 52 Moslem, 2002, p. 97. 53 Buchta, 2000, p. 88. 26 Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities nei, unlike Ayatollah Khomeini, has not attained the level of marja-etaqlid [source of emulation] and therefore is not qualified to serve as the Supreme Leader.

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