By Michael Strevens

Many advanced systems--from immensely complex ecosystems to minute assemblages of molecules--surprise us with their easy habit. think about, for example, the snowflake, during which a good number of water molecules organize themselves in styles with six-way symmetry. How is it that molecules relocating possible at random develop into prepared in line with the easy, six-fold rule? How do the comings, goings, conferences, and eatings of person animals upload as much as the easy dynamics of environment populations? extra usually, how does advanced and probably capricious microbehavior generate strong, predictable macrobehavior?

during this ebook, Michael Strevens goals to provide an explanation for how simplicity can coexist with, certainly be as a result of, the tangled interconnections among a posh system's many elements. on the middle of Strevens's rationalization is the idea of likelihood and, extra really, probabilistic independence. by way of analyzing the principles of statistical reasoning approximately complicated structures resembling gases, ecosystems, and sure social platforms, Strevens presents an knowing of ways simplicity emerges from complexity. alongside the way in which, he attracts classes about the low-level clarification of high-level phenomena and the root for introducing probabilistic techniques into actual idea.

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**Additional resources for Bigger than chaos: understanding complexity through probability**

**Example text**

I will distinguish three important limitations of the ergodic approach. None, except perhaps the ﬁrst, constitutes an objection to the use of the ergodic approach to justify the probabilistic apparatus of statistical physics; what is limited, rather, is the potential of the ergodic approach to explain the success of epa outside of physics. I will need something more ﬂexible. The ﬁrst limitation of the ergodic approach is that, in its earlier versions, it delivers the desired patterns of behavior only in the long run.

This is not to be taken as an objection to the metaphysical accounts; it is no defect that they do not yield answers they were not intended to give. Rather, it is a reason for someone with my goals to put aside the metaphysical accounts. And—as noted above—so I do: throughout the book I remain agnostic on all metaphysical questions. The primary purpose of my metaphysical noncommittal is to avoid needless philosophical entanglements, but noncommittal brings with it two positive beneﬁts, as well.

The dependence is simply passed up from the microlevel to the macrolevel. For example, if the probability of a particular rabbit’s dying is a function of the current number of rabbits and foxes, the macrolevel probabilities over future population levels will also be functions of the current number of rabbits and foxes. If, by contrast, the probability of a particular rabbit’s dying depends on microlevel information about the particular positions of particular foxes, the macrolevel probabilities obtained by aggregation will be functions of—will depend on—this microlevel information about fox position.