By Jörg C. Lemm

Lemm, a former instructor of physics and psychology on the college of Munster, Germany, applies Bayesian tips on how to difficulties in physics, delivering sensible examples of Bayesian research for physicists operating in parts similar to neural networks, synthetic intelligence, and inverse difficulties in quantum concept. Nonparametric density estimation difficulties also are mentioned, together with, as targeted circumstances, nonparametric regression and trend reputation.

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**Example text**

The method of the least squares consists of the minimization of the normalized sum of squared deviations, the so-called residual. In the considered example it is given by (Bruks et ai, 1972) ,_i axa + ayi THE CHANCE ON STAGE 25 On the other hand, we can estimate the residual from the point of view of the probability theory, considering it as a sum of n squared Gaussian quantities. 95, or 95%), is denoted by Xn-i(P)- Its value can be found in tables of mathematical statistics. For n > 30, the following asymptotic expressions can be used: Xn{F) = \{yj2n- 1 + K,)2 , or ""-'v-s^Vw- <10) when P is close to 0 or 1, respectively.

Inequality (11) is rather complicated and its straightforward solution requires serious computations. Very frequently, experimental errors are not very large, and parameters a and b can be successively found with a ruler. This simple procedure can often yield the values a* and b* corresponding to the minimum of the residual with an accuracy of 1 percent or even better. It is expected that true values of a and b deviate from a* and b* not very strongly, by a few tenths of a percent. Formally, in inequality (11), the unknowns are a and b, but in the denominator of the residual a is multiplied by ax, the accuracy of the latter quantity being much inferior to that of a.

The number of molecules approaches the stationary value according to the law n = n,(l - e~») where /? = const. However, just like the case of incoming particles, the distribution of the number of molecules around the average value is Gaussian. In particular, the number of molecules continues to fluctuate in time even wben the average number n becomes stationary, fit» 1. The final state is stationary in average but fluctuative. The plot of n versus / resembles a trajectory of a Brownian particle that wanders under the combined influence of elastic returning force and the random driving force.