Analytic Culture in the United States Intelligence by Ph.D. Rob Johnston

By Ph.D. Rob Johnston

Identifies and describes stipulations and variables that negatively impact intelligence research. Investigates analytic tradition, technique, mistakes, and failure in the Intelligence neighborhood. makes use of an utilized anthropological technique that comes with interviews, direct and player statement, and concentration teams. features a bibliography.

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10 For example, he described intelligence analysis as having a basic descriptive element, a current reporting element, and an estimative element. Following suit, other authors focused attention on the process or methodological elements of intelligence analysis. In Intelligence Research Methodology, Jerome Clauser and Sandra Weir followed Kent’s three functional areas and went on to describe basic research foundations and the inductive and deductive models for performing intelligence analysis. 11 Garst’s Handbook of Intelligence Analysis contains less background in basic research methods than Clauser and Weir’s book, but it is more focused on the intelligence cycle.

Carolus Linnaeus My research was designed to isolate variables that affect the analytic process. The resulting taxonomy is meant to establish parameters and to stimulate dialogue in order to develop refinements. Although a hierarchic list is artificial and rigid, it is a first step in clarifying areas for future research. The actual variables are considerably more fluid and interconnected than such a structure suggests. Once the individual elements are refined through challenges in the literature, they might be better represented by a link or web diagram.

Alternative analysis is a nice concept, but I don’t have the time to do it. I’ve got to keep up with the daily traffic. I use several analytic techniques that are relatively fast. Scenario development, red teams, competing hypotheses, they’re all too time consuming. We’ve got Bayesian tools, simulations, all kinds of advanced methods, but when am I supposed to do any of that? It takes all my time to keep up with the daily reporting as it is. I don’t have time to worry about formal analytic methods.

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