A Vision for the National Weather Service: Road Map for the by National Research Council, National Weather Service,

By National Research Council, National Weather Service, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Weather Service Modernization Committee, Panel on the Road Map for the Future

Panel at the highway Map for the long run, nationwide climate provider Modernization Committee, fee on Engineering and Technical structures, department on Engineering and actual Sciences, nationwide climate provider, nationwide examine Council

In this examine, the committee explores methods the nationwide climate provider (NWS) can benefit from carrying on with advances in technology and expertise to satisfy the demanding situations of the long run. The predictions are keen on the objective yr 2025. simply because particular predictions concerning the country of technological know-how and know-how or the NWS greater than 25 years sooner or later should not totally actual, the target of this document is to spot and spotlight traits which are probably to persuade swap. The Panel at the highway Map for the longer term nationwide climate carrier constructed an positive imaginative and prescient for 2025 in line with advances in technology and know-how.

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3. The NWS will continue to be responsible for maintaining, developing, and operating a suite of analytical and predictive models and the supercomputers required to run them. 4. The boundaries between climate prediction and weather prediction will blur and eventually disappear. Certain climate forecasting responsibilities will become increasingly important functions of 1 In this report, the terms “weather” and “climate” include the relevant aspects of related disciplines, especially hydrology and oceanography.

Radar Systems Ground-based and airborne Doppler radars provide a wide range of observations. These systems include the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) systems and wind profilers, which have demonstrated their ability to detect localized phenomena, such as downbursts near airports and mesoscale cyclonic rotations, which are precursors to the development of tornadoes. The more routine observations of the vertical profile of horizontal wind and its changes with time have also proven to be of great value for forecasting, particularly for aviation forecasts and NWP models.

Errors, no matter how small, typically grow at a rate that causes forecasts to become inaccurate in the range of 10 to 20 days. Although the atmosphere is predictable for only a few weeks, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system may be predictable for a year. For example, the Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Program of the World Climate Research Program has demonstrated that the El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the associated Southern Oscillation are to some extent predictable a year in advance (Trenberth, 1997).

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